The Investec Wealth Forum - Global investment view

Global investment view

15 August 2017

The Investec Wealth & Investment Global Investment Strategy Group explains how they reach their risk budget and discuss the global investment outlook for the next 18 months.

John Haynes

Chairman of the Global Investment Strategy group, Investec Wealth & Investment, UK

Brian Kantor

Chief Strategist & Economist, Wealth & Investment SA

Annelise Peers

Chief Investment Officer, Investec Bank Switzerland

Chris Hills

Chief Investment Officer, Investec Wealth & Investment UK

The Global Investment Strategy Group brings together the finest investment minds at Investec Wealth & Investment across the different geographies, to set the overarching positioning and investment strategy for the investment portfolios of clients.

John Haynes, head of research at Investec Wealth & Investment UK and chairman of the Global Investment Strategy Group, chaired a panel at the recent Investec Wealth Forum in Cape Town and Johannesburg. The panel ran through the Global Investment Strategy Group’s positioning over the next 18 months.

Panel participants included:

  • Brian Kantor, Chief Strategist & Economist, Wealth & Investment SA
  • Chris Hills, Chief Investment Officer, Investec Wealth & Investment UK
  • Annelise Peers, Chief Investment Officer, Investec Bank Switzerland

Here are some of the key outtakes of the discussion:

  • “The Global Investment Strategy Group, what does it do? It has one simple job: to determine the risk budget of the firm.” John Haynes
  • “[A key role] of the central bank is to alleviate a financial crisis.” Brian Kantor
  • “I still think there is a reasonable amount of mileage [to go], so I’m not wanting to be underweight equities. And the main reason for that is because I don’t think I’m being compensated for sitting in cash.” Chris Hills
  • “Markets tend to go up on an escalator; and when they go down it’s like jumping out of a window.” Annelise Peers
  • “We should be looking at equities against inflation, to see if the equity prices we are paying are inflated or not.” John Haynes

Watch the video of the panel discussion here:

 

Scroll to the topics you’re interested in using the time codes below:

• 00:06: The role of Investec Wealth & Investment’s Global Investment Strategy Group in setting the risk budget for the firm
• 00:40: “Serial optimist” Prof Brian Kantor on the role of the Central Reserve Banks in alleviating financial crisis
• 03:06: Prof Brian Kantor on the need for Central Banks’ balance sheets to contract, shrinking the cash reserves of the banking system
• 03:26: John Haynes on the victory of the Central Banks and how equity risk was rewarded
• 04:10: Chris Hills on why he’s started to “soften his risk enthusiasm”
• 06:06: Chris Hills expects the US Federal Reserve to start shrinking their balance sheet, while Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, will also expand the balance sheet a lot slower than in previous years in 2018
• 06:40: Chris Hills on why he doesn’t want to be underweight on equities
• 07:28: John Haynes on “transition risk”
• 07:46: Annelise Peers on the importance of having bonds in your portfolio
• 08:58: Annelise Peers on what interest rates will look like going forward
• 10:12: 10-year bonds to be between 2-3%, according to Annelise Peers
• 10:20: John Haynes on the valuation question – “we should be looking at equities against inflation”

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